🏈 USDA: THE MAGAZINE 🔮 WEEK 4 — WAY-TOO-EARLY RECRUITING CLASS PROJECTIONS
🏈 USDA: THE MAGAZINE
🔮 WEEK 4 — WAY-TOO-EARLY RECRUITING CLASS PROJECTIONS
The Leads Are Forming. The Visits Are Coming. And the Race for the Top Five Is About to Get Expensive.
Week 4 is where recruiting starts becoming real.
The boards have taken shape. Programs have established legitimate leads. Some blue chips have already gone verbal or committed. We can see who is concentrating resources at the very top of the board, who is spreading money across volume, who is protecting home territory and who is going into somebody else’s backyard trying to take premium talent.
And now comes the dangerous part:
Visit season.
A current lead is valuable.
It is not a signature.
A great visit can turn a close race into a recruitment another program can no longer realistically chase.
A poor visit can erase weeks of work.
And with so many of these schools fighting over the same players, a single flip can create a double swing in the projected rankings — one team gains the prospect while the former leader loses him.
So consider this the first true Way-Too-Early USDA Recruiting Projection.
⸻
📊 HOW THE PROJECTION WORKS
The complete Blue-Chip Report contains 343 ranked players.
The first 32 are five-stars.
Everyone from #33 through #343 is a four-star.
For this projection, every recruiting slot is weighted progressively.
#1 is worth slightly more than #2.
#2 is worth slightly more than #3.
And that continues all the way through #343.
There are no artificial cliff effects in the actual weighting. A player at #99 is slightly more valuable than #100, who is slightly more valuable than #101.
The familiar labels simply help us understand the quality of the board:
⭐ Five-Star — #1-32
💯 Top-100 4-Star — #33-100
📈 Top-247 4-Star — #101-247
🔹 Other 4-Star — #248-343
That distinction matters.
Three-stars remain the lifeblood of college football. They fill rosters, develop, become starters and frequently turn into stars.
But we’re trying to project recruiting rankings.
And recruiting rankings are driven at the top by blue-chip accumulation.
There is also a much bigger USDA consequence attached to this particular race.
🏆 TOP FIVE MATTERS
Securing a Top-5 recruiting class isn’t merely a trophy for the message board.
It can help open the path toward the Elite Recruiter tree.
That means an elite recruiting cycle can create advantages that affect recruiting cycles after it.
So being fifth instead of sixth may eventually mean much more than one position in the standings.
That’s why this race matters now.
⸻
🥇 1. USC
18 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 3 Five-Stars
💯 6 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 3 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 6 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #1 Ceiling | #6 Floor
If everything ended today, USC would have our projected No. 1 class.
And the Trojans aren’t getting there simply by piling up bodies.
Nine of USC’s 18 current leaders sit inside the national Top 100.
That means half of the current projected blue-chip class is Top-100 talent.
The Talent Hub Report already told us what USC’s recruiting philosophy looks like geographically.
They’re the only program currently leading prospects from California, Texas, Florida and Georgia.
California is still the foundation, but USC isn’t behaving like a program content to simply defend Los Angeles and call it a day.
This looks like a genuine national NIL strategy.
Likely NIL Focus
Protect the premium California players first.
Then selectively spend large amounts on national targets where USC believes it can win.
The catch is obvious.
If you’re actively involved in this many expensive recruitments, you have a lot of money and attention tied up simultaneously.
Visit Season
USC’s California leads will continue getting pressure from Oregon, Washington and national schools.
A strong run of visits could allow USC to start shutting doors.
A bad weekend or two could expose just how many expensive battles they’re juggling.
Ceiling: #1 — currently the best combination of elite talent, depth and geographic reach.
Floor: #6 — too much quality to disappear, but plenty of the board is still contested.
⸻
🥈 2. TEXAS
13 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 2 Five-Stars
💯 7 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 4 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 0 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #1 Ceiling | #7 Floor
Texas may have the cleanest board in USDA.
All 13 current Longhorn leaders are ranked inside the Top 247.
Not one falls below it.
Even more importantly:
Nine of 13 are Top 100.
That suggests a very clear resource strategy.
Texas isn’t using blue-chip volume just for the sake of volume.
They’re targeting expensive inventory.
Likely NIL Focus
High-end concentration.
Texas appears willing to spend heavily on a smaller number of nationally premium prospects rather than pad the board farther down the rankings.
And with 55 blue chips in Texas alone, they can afford to be selective.
The Longhorns don’t need everybody.
They need the players they believe are worth paying for.
The biggest opportunity remains at the very top of their own state.
Alabama currently leads both five-star Texas safeties.
Oklahoma leads the only five-star LT.
A&M leads another Texas five-star.
Texas leads five-star CB Vernon Troyer.
Visit Season
If Texas flips one or two of those major in-state battles while protecting its existing Top-100 group?
There is absolutely a path to No. 1.
But because Texas has almost no lower-ranked four-star padding underneath its elite board, losing a few premium players could hurt more than it would hurt a volume class.
Ceiling: #1
Floor: #7
⸻
🥉 3. ALABAMA
18 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 3 Five-Stars
💯 3 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 7 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 5 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #1 Ceiling | #7 Floor
USC and Alabama are tied for the most blue-chip leaders in USDA.
But Alabama’s path is completely different.
The Tide are raiding.
From the four major talent hubs alone, Alabama currently leads players from:
Texas
Florida
Georgia
And Alabama’s home state isn’t even one of those four hubs.
This may be the purest national NIL muscle class in the cycle.
Likely NIL Focus
Alabama appears willing to spend heavily on high-value defensive talent while still keeping enough resources distributed to build substantial class volume.
The biggest example remains Texas.
Alabama currently leads both five-star Texas safeties.
Those are not going to be cheap recruitments to defend.
Texas is going to keep pushing.
Visit Season
If Alabama can survive the coming visits and hold those Texas five-stars, this board is built to stay near the top.
But if the Longhorns or another school starts reclaiming some of those expensive raids, Alabama could lose recruiting value quickly.
Ceiling: #1
Floor: #7
⸻
4. TEXAS A&M
13 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 6 Five-Stars
💯 0 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 5 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #1 Ceiling | #9 Floor
This is the wildest board in USDA.
SIX FIVE-STARS.
Texas A&M currently leads:
#1
#8
#13
#17
#18
#23
Nobody else is close to that level of five-star concentration.
And those six players come from six different states.
That tells us everything about A&M’s early philosophy.
Likely NIL Focus
Whale hunting.
The Aggies appear willing to invest enormous resources into truly elite national targets rather than filling the top of their class with large numbers of Top-100 four-stars.
That’s why the board looks bizarre.
Six five-stars.
Then no additional Top-100 four-star leader.
The next current A&M lead after the five-star group doesn’t come until #106.
The Risk
How much NIL is being tied up protecting six enormously expensive recruitments at the same time?
Because once competitors begin bringing those players onto campus, the price of keeping all six could rise.
There is also the five-star QB issue.
A&M leads Mike Downs and David Reeves.
At some point, those recruitments could affect each other.
Does one become uncomfortable with the other?
Does another school use the depth chart against A&M?
Visit Season
A&M may have more to protect than anybody.
A great visit season could stabilize six five-star leads and make this the most frightening class in USDA.
A bad one could cause enormous movement.
Ceiling: #1
Floor: #9
A&M probably has the greatest variance among the elite classes.
⸻
5. OHIO STATE
13 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 3 Five-Stars
💯 4 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 3 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #2 Ceiling | #9 Floor
Ohio State currently sits in the most important position on the board.
Fifth.
The final projected Top-5 class.
And the Buckeyes’ five-star trio is absurdly valuable:
#3
#4
#11
That is elite placement even within the five-star tier.
Ohio State also has four more Top-100 four-stars.
Seven Top-100 players overall gives this board the premium depth you want from a true Top-5 class.
Likely NIL Focus
Selective national spending.
Ohio State’s elite board is heavily centered on premium prospects from the East and Northeast, while its major-hub success has included Texas and Florida.
This doesn’t look like indiscriminate volume.
It looks targeted.
Visit Season
The problem is the teams immediately behind Ohio State.
Notre Dame has more total blue-chip leaders.
Penn State has four five-stars.
Clemson has enormous Top-247 depth.
Ohio State is currently inside the door.
But the door is open.
Ceiling: #2
Floor: #9
⸻
🚨 THE ELITE RECRUITER CUT LINE
If recruiting froze today:
1. USC
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Texas A&M
5. Ohio State
Those are the five programs currently holding the spots everybody wants.
Then comes the pressure.
⸻
6. NOTRE DAME
14 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 1 Five-Star
💯 4 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 6 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #3 Ceiling | #10 Floor
Notre Dame is the first team out.
And this is a very dangerous No. 6.
Fourteen current blue-chip leaders is more than Texas, A&M or Ohio State.
Eleven are Top-247 players.
The Irish simply don’t have the five-star concentration of the teams above them.
Likely NIL Focus
Breadth.
Notre Dame appears to be spreading resources across a large national board of very good players instead of concentrating everything into a handful of five-star bidding wars.
That can create stability.
But it can also create a ceiling if the teams above you continue stacking elite players.
Visit Season
One major five-star flip could change everything.
Notre Dame already leads five-star CB Lee Nwaneri out of Georgia and is involved in several other premium recruitments.
This is the program most likely to make the current No. 5 team uncomfortable.
Ceiling: #3
Floor: #10
⸻
7. CLEMSON
11 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 1 Five-Star
💯 2 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 7 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #4 Ceiling | #11 Floor
Clemson’s board is quietly outstanding.
Ten of 11 current leaders are Top-247 prospects.
That is an incredibly high-quality floor.
And Clemson already has multiple blue-chip decisions in hand.
Likely NIL Focus
Regional efficiency.
Georgia.
Florida.
Nearby premium players.
Fewer wasted resources chasing every national battle available.
Clemson’s Talent Hub profile suggested the same thing: it has been incredibly efficient in Georgia and Florida.
That can matter as visit season gets heavier.
Shorter travel.
Familiar pipelines.
Easier repeat access.
Visit Season
Clemson may not have A&M’s superstar ceiling, but this could become one of the safest classes on the board if more of these current leads close.
Ceiling: #4
Floor: #11
⸻
8. PENN STATE
10 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 4 Five-Stars
💯 1 additional Top-100 4-Star
📈 4 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #3 Ceiling | #13 Floor
Penn State only has ten blue-chip leaders.
But four are five-stars.
Only Texas A&M has more.
And the identity of those five-stars matters.
Penn State is loading up on the defensive front.
EDGE.
EDGE.
EDGE.
DT.
Likely NIL Focus
Position-group dominance.
Rather than simply buying stars anywhere they can find them, Penn State appears to be investing premium resources into building a future defensive front.
That gives this class a coherent identity.
Visit Season
The downside is concentration risk.
Lose one five-star and you feel it.
Lose two and this projection falls quickly.
Close all four?
Penn State can absolutely threaten the Top Five.
Ceiling: #3
Floor: #13
⸻
9. LSU
13 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 2 Five-Stars
💯 1 additional Top-100 4-Star
📈 6 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 4 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #5 Ceiling | #14 Floor
LSU has volume.
What it lacks is enough of that volume at the very top.
Only three current LSU leaders are Top-100 prospects.
That’s why a 13-player board sits behind Penn State’s ten.
Likely NIL Focus
Balanced class construction.
LSU appears to be spending enough at the top to remain involved with stars, while also making sure the class doesn’t become dependent on two or three players.
The biggest battle remains Louisiana.
LSU leads one of the state’s two five-stars.
A&M leads the other.
Visit Season
If LSU flips five-star QB Mike Downs from A&M, it produces one of the biggest possible double swings in this ranking.
LSU gains a five-star.
A&M loses one.
That could move both teams.
Ceiling: #5
Floor: #14
⸻
10. FLORIDA
11 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 5 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 4 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #6 Ceiling | #14 Floor
No five-stars.
Still Top 10.
That’s impressive.
Florida’s entire profile matches what we saw in the Talent Hub Report.
Florida has 43 blue chips, but only one five-star.
So the Gators are playing the board they’re given.
Likely NIL Focus
Four-star accumulation.
Instead of throwing everything at a tiny five-star pool, Florida appears to be identifying the best four-stars in-state and stacking them.
Five Top-100 four-stars is excellent.
Visit Season
This class has less volatility than some of the five-star-heavy programs because its value isn’t tied to only one or two players.
Florida’s job now is to turn quantity into signatures.
Ceiling: #6
Floor: #14
⸻
11. ILLINOIS
11 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 2 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 7 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #7 Ceiling | #17 Floor
Illinois is one of the biggest surprises in the report.
Nine of its 11 current leaders are Top 247.
And its Talent Hub profile already showed an unusual amount of geographic diversity.
Likely NIL Focus
Spread the money.
Illinois appears to be avoiding the most expensive five-star wars and instead accumulating a large collection of strong four-star prospects.
That’s potentially very efficient.
If the whales are consuming huge portions of the budgets at the top programs, Illinois may be winning the players just beneath them.
Ceiling: #7
Floor: #17
⸻
12. OLE MISS
11 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 1 Five-Star
💯 1 additional Top-100 4-Star
📈 7 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #7 Ceiling | #17 Floor
Ole Miss has built an extremely deep Top-247 class.
Nine of the 11 current leaders fall inside the Top 247.
Likely NIL Focus
Strong four-star depth with one premium anchor.
That profile gives Ole Miss more stability than a class built entirely around a couple expensive stars.
The major upside remains Mississippi itself.
Ole Miss leads one of the state’s two five-stars.
Oregon leads the other.
Visit Season
Flip that second Mississippi five-star and Ole Miss could own the top of its home state while pushing toward the Top 10.
Ceiling: #7
Floor: #17
⸻
13. OKLAHOMA
11 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 2 Five-Stars
💯 0 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 5 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 4 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #6 Ceiling | #18 Floor
Oklahoma is another strange class.
Two five-stars at the top.
Then no other Top-100 four-star leaders.
The Sooners are doing most of their major-hub damage in Texas.
Likely NIL Focus
Premium anchors plus Texas value.
Oklahoma appears willing to pay heavily for a handful of true elite targets, then work the enormous Texas four-star pool beneath them.
The centerpiece is five-star LT Brent Lemon.
He is the only five-star left tackle in the class.
Scarcity usually costs money.
Visit Season
Texas, A&M and Alabama are not going to stop fighting for elite Texas talent.
Oklahoma will have to defend its position.
Ceiling: #6
Floor: #18
⸻
14. TCU
8 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 2 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 5 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #9 Ceiling | #20 Floor
Seven of TCU’s eight current leaders are Top 247.
That’s a very clean board.
Likely NIL Focus
Value accumulation in Texas.
TCU doesn’t need to outbid the giants for every five-star.
With 55 blue chips in-state, there is enormous value in simply owning the second layer while Texas, A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma fight at the top.
Ceiling: #9
Floor: #20
⸻
15. INDIANA
8 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 2 Five-Stars
💯 1 additional Top-100 4-Star
📈 2 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #7 Ceiling | #22 Floor
Eight blue chips doesn’t sound overwhelming.
Then you look at the first two.
#7
#9
Indiana currently leads two Top-10 five-stars.
That changes everything.
Likely NIL Focus
Top-heavy by necessity.
If you’re Indiana and you’re leading two prospects ranked inside the national Top 10, those are the recruitments you protect first.
Everything else comes second.
And the potential five-star QB/WR pairing could become the foundation of an entire offense.
Visit Season
This class is highly sensitive.
Close both stars and Indiana could dramatically outperform its total volume.
Lose one and the ranking can slide quickly.
Ceiling: #7
Floor: #22
⸻
16. GEORGIA
10 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 2 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 5 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #9 Ceiling | #22 Floor
Georgia is one of the most intriguing situations in USDA.
Ten current blue-chip leaders is healthy.
But none are five-stars.
And Georgia currently leads none of the four five-stars produced by Georgia.
That’s the issue.
Likely NIL Focus
So far, the Bulldogs have built depth rather than winning the most expensive battles at home.
That may change.
Because watching Alabama, A&M, Notre Dame and Clemson lead Georgia five-stars is probably not something this program can tolerate forever.
Visit Season
If Georgia begins reclaiming even one or two of those home-state elites, this projection changes quickly.
Ceiling: #9
Floor: #22
⸻
17. MICHIGAN
10 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 6 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #10 Ceiling | #23 Floor
Michigan has a sturdy board.
Seven of its ten leaders are Top-247 players.
Likely NIL Focus
Balanced developmental recruiting.
Michigan isn’t currently throwing huge weight at the five-star layer.
Instead, it’s stacking good four-stars and betting on development.
The floor is respectable.
The ceiling requires a few more elite wins.
Ceiling: #10
Floor: #23
⸻
18. WASHINGTON
7 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 5 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #11 Ceiling | #25 Floor
Six of Washington’s seven current leaders are Top 247.
That’s stronger than the raw total suggests.
Likely NIL Focus
Western expansion.
Washington has repeatedly shown up in California recruiting battles.
The Huskies clearly want Southern California to function as an extension of their territory.
Visit Season
Washington may not want to win every battle purely through NIL.
Visits, fit and early playing time could be especially important when going head-to-head with USC and Oregon.
Ceiling: #11
Floor: #25
⸻
19. UCLA
10 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 7 Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #12 Ceiling | #24 Floor
UCLA has one of the most fascinating board shapes.
Ten blue-chip leaders.
Zero Top-100 players.
That’s why the Bruins aren’t ranked higher.
Likely NIL Focus
Own the middle of California.
USC may be spending more aggressively at the very top.
UCLA appears to be cleaning up the next tier.
And its California conversion has been outstanding.
There is a very reasonable strategy here:
Let somebody else overpay for five-stars. Stack four-stars. Develop them.
But if UCLA wants to crack the recruiting Top 10, it probably needs a couple higher-ranked wins.
Ceiling: #12
Floor: #24
⸻
20. TENNESSEE
6 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 1 Five-Star
💯 2 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 additional Top-247 4-Star
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #11 Ceiling | #27 Floor
Tennessee doesn’t have much volume.
What it has is quality at the top.
Three of its six leaders are Top 100.
And one is five-star QB Lorenzo Lockridge.
Likely NIL Focus
Georgia.
Tennessee’s Talent Hub activity makes the strategy obvious.
Nine appearances on Georgia blue-chip boards.
Four current Georgia hub leads.
Tennessee is trying to make Georgia feel like part of its recruiting footprint.
Visit Season
Because the class is small, every high-end battle matters enormously.
Close the top.
Add volume later.
Ceiling: #11
Floor: #27
⸻
21. OREGON
7 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 1 Five-Star
💯 2 additional Top-100 4-Stars
📈 2 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #9 Ceiling | #28 Floor
Oregon remains the ultimate access versus conversion team.
The Ducks show up everywhere.
California.
Texas.
Five-star boards.
But the current number of actual leads doesn’t match the opportunity set.
Likely NIL Focus
National aggression.
Oregon clearly isn’t afraid to spend outside its home market.
The problem isn’t finding recruitments.
It’s finishing them.
Visit Season
This could be one of the fastest-rising teams on the board if the Ducks begin turning seconds and thirds into firsts.
Ceiling: #9
Floor: #28
⸻
22. MISSOURI
8 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 3 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 4 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #14 Ceiling | #28 Floor
Missouri has quietly accumulated useful four-star volume.
Half the current leaders are outside the Top 247, which limits the ranking upside today.
Likely NIL Focus
Depth over star chasing.
A few higher-ranked wins could move Missouri substantially because the base is already there.
Ceiling: #14
Floor: #28
⸻
23. TEXAS TECH
7 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 2 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 3 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #14 Ceiling | #29 Floor
Texas Tech has five leaders inside the Top 247.
And unlike some other Texas schools, Tech has shown meaningful activity in Florida and Georgia too.
Likely NIL Focus
Home-state value with selective Southeast expansion.
The biggest challenge is obvious.
There are a lot of rich programs shopping in Texas.
Tech doesn’t need to win every luxury battle.
It needs to keep winning enough of the strong middle tier.
Ceiling: #14
Floor: #29
⸻
24. FLORIDA STATE
7 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 2 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 2 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #13 Ceiling | #29 Floor
Florida State has four current leaders inside the Top 247.
Its overall profile is solid rather than spectacular.
But the in-state situation is promising.
FSU has been far more productive in Florida than Miami.
Likely NIL Focus
Defend Florida first.
Then selectively leave the state.
If Florida State continues converting locally while Miami struggles, it can become the primary in-state challenger to Florida.
Ceiling: #13
Floor: #29
⸻
25. GEORGIA TECH
5 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 3 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 0 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #15 Ceiling | #31 Floor
Georgia Tech is one of the weirdest classes on the board.
Only five leaders.
Three are Top 100.
Likely NIL Focus
Concentration.
If Georgia Tech is going to have a small blue-chip board, it appears determined to make the top of that board expensive.
This is the opposite of volume recruiting.
Ceiling: #15
Floor: #31
⸻
26. NEBRASKA
6 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 2 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 additional Top-247 4-Star
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #18 Ceiling | #32 Floor
Two Top-100 players give Nebraska some legitimate quality at the top.
But half of the projected blue-chip class sits outside the Top 247.
Likely NIL Focus
Selective premium spending with development bets underneath.
The next step is adding more middle-tier blue-chip depth.
Ceiling: #18
Floor: #32
⸻
27. BYU
5 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 1 additional Top-247 4-Star
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #19 Ceiling | #33 Floor
BYU’s board is small, but the California pipeline has been one of the interesting subplots of the hub report.
Likely NIL Focus
Western value hunting.
Rather than trying to beat USC and Oregon for every superstar, BYU is finding individual California battles it believes it can win.
Ceiling: #19
Floor: #33
⸻
28. AUBURN
6 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 3 Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 3 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #19 Ceiling | #34 Floor
Auburn has six leaders but lacks a Top-100 headliner.
Its Talent Hub profile shows activity across Florida, Georgia and Texas.
Likely NIL Focus
Broad regional depth.
The access is there.
Now Auburn needs a premium win to move the ranking needle.
Ceiling: #19
Floor: #34
⸻
29. LOUISVILLE
3 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 2 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 0 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #21 Ceiling | #35 Floor
Only three blue-chip leaders.
But all three are Top 247.
That gives Louisville a much better quality profile than the raw volume suggests.
Likely NIL Focus
Small board, quality targets.
The obvious need now is simply more volume.
Ceiling: #21
Floor: #35
⸻
30. MICHIGAN STATE
3 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 3 Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 0 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #22 Ceiling | #36 Floor
Three leaders.
All three Top 247.
That’s a clean but tiny board.
Likely NIL Focus
Quality before quantity.
Michigan State needs more blue-chip opportunities before it can realistically move much higher.
Ceiling: #22
Floor: #36
⸻
31. ARKANSAS
3 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 1 additional Top-247 4-Star
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #22 Ceiling | #37 Floor
Arkansas has one player in every four-star tier.
Interesting balance.
Not enough volume.
Likely NIL Focus
A premium swing at the top with value underneath.
More wins are needed to turn this into a meaningful rankings class.
Ceiling: #22
Floor: #37
⸻
32. MINNESOTA
4 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 2 Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #23 Ceiling | #38 Floor
Minnesota has managed to pull blue-chip leads out of difficult Southern territory.
That’s notable.
Likely NIL Focus
Selective out-of-region opportunities.
The ranking upside remains limited until Minnesota adds a Top-100 type.
Ceiling: #23
Floor: #38
⸻
33. UTAH
3 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 2 Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #24 Ceiling | #39 Floor
Utah has two solid Top-247 leaders.
The board is simply too small right now.
Likely NIL Focus
Targeted value rather than volume.
Ceiling: #24
Floor: #39
⸻
34. VIRGINIA TECH
2 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 2 Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 0 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #25 Ceiling | #39 Floor
Only two.
But both are Top 247.
Likely NIL Focus
Extremely concentrated board.
Virginia Tech needs additional wins more than it needs better quality from the two already there.
Ceiling: #25
Floor: #39
⸻
35. MIAMI
2 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 0 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #20 Ceiling | #40 Floor
This remains one of the biggest early stories.
Miami sits inside a state with:
43 BLUE CHIPS
Yet the Hurricanes currently lead only two blue chips nationally in this entire report — and only one from Florida’s major hub board.
That’s simply not enough.
Likely NIL Focus
Hard to read yet because there isn’t enough conversion.
Miami has access.
The Hurricanes appear on boards.
They simply aren’t finishing first often enough.
The Swing Recruitment
Five-star RB Nick Cota.
A&M currently leads.
Miami is right there.
Flip Cota and the entire perception of this class changes.
That’s why Miami’s ceiling remains far higher than No. 35.
Visit Season
Few programs need a great visit stretch more.
Miami has too much talent sitting nearby to remain this low.
Ceiling: #20
Floor: #40
⸻
36. KENTUCKY
2 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 Top-247 4-Star
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #27 Ceiling | #40 Floor
Kentucky needs more volume.
One Top-247 leader gives the class a start.
Nothing more yet.
Ceiling: #27
Floor: #40
⸻
37. IOWA
3 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 Top-247 4-Star
🔹 2 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #28 Ceiling | #41 Floor
Iowa has three current blue-chip leaders, but only one is inside the Top 247.
Likely NIL Focus
Development-oriented blue-chip depth.
A higher-ranked win would matter tremendously.
Ceiling: #28
Floor: #41
⸻
38. VIRGINIA
2 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 Top-247 4-Star
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #29 Ceiling | #41 Floor
Two blue-chip leaders.
One Top 247.
This is still a very early foundation.
Ceiling: #29
Floor: #41
⸻
39. SOUTH CAROLINA
2 Blue-Chip Leaders
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 1 Top-100 4-Star
📈 0 additional Top-247 4-Stars
🔹 1 other 4-Star
Projected Range: #30 Ceiling | #41 Floor
South Carolina at least has a Top-100 piece.
That’s valuable.
The other current leader is all the way at #343, which shows how thin the class currently is.
Likely NIL Focus
One premium target, then developmental value.
More volume is needed quickly.
Ceiling: #30
Floor: #41
⸻
40. NC STATE
1 Blue-Chip Leader
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 Top-247 4-Star
🔹 0 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #32 Ceiling | #41 Floor
One current blue-chip leader.
At #214.
There simply isn’t enough board yet to project much higher.
Visit season needs to create new opportunities.
Ceiling: #32
Floor: #41
⸻
41. MISSISSIPPI STATE
1 Blue-Chip Leader
⭐ 0 Five-Stars
💯 0 Top-100 4-Stars
📈 1 Top-247 4-Star
🔹 0 other 4-Stars
Projected Range: #33 Ceiling | #41 Floor
One current blue-chip leader at #217.
That’s the smallest current footprint in the projection.
But this part of the rankings can move quickly.
A couple four-star wins can take a program from No. 41 into the 30s almost immediately.
Ceiling: #33
Floor: #41
⸻
📋 THE FULL WEEK 4 PROJECTION
1. USC
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Texas A&M
5. Ohio State
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Penn State
9. LSU
10. Florida
11. Illinois
12. Ole Miss
13. Oklahoma
14. TCU
15. Indiana
16. Georgia
17. Michigan
18. Washington
19. UCLA
20. Tennessee
21. Oregon
22. Missouri
23. Texas Tech
24. Florida State
25. Georgia Tech
26. Nebraska
27. BYU
28. Auburn
29. Louisville
30. Michigan State
31. Arkansas
32. Minnesota
33. Utah
34. Virginia Tech
35. Miami
36. Kentucky
37. Iowa
38. Virginia
39. South Carolina
40. NC State
41. Mississippi State
⸻
👑 THE FIVE-STAR ARMS RACE
Texas A&M — 6
Penn State — 4
USC — 3
Alabama — 3
Ohio State — 3
Texas — 2
LSU — 2
Indiana — 2
Oklahoma — 2
Notre Dame — 1
Oregon — 1
Ole Miss — 1
Clemson — 1
Tennessee — 1
A&M’s six remain the defining outlier.
But Penn State’s four are enough to make that class extremely dangerous.
⸻
💯 TOP-100 POWER
Counting five-stars and Top-100 four-stars together:
USC — 9
Texas — 9
Ohio State — 7
Alabama — 6
Texas A&M — 6
Notre Dame — 5
Penn State — 5
Florida — 5
That explains a lot about the top of the projection.
Texas and USC aren’t simply accumulating recruits.
They’re accumulating expensive recruits.
⸻
💰 THE NIL PERSONALITIES ARE STARTING TO EMERGE
If we assume what naturally makes sense — that recruiting costs generally rise as the player ranking rises — then these classes already appear to be following different economic models.
THE WHALE HUNTERS
Texas A&M
Penn State
Indiana
These schools are concentrating enormous value in a smaller number of elite players.
The upside is enormous.
So is the volatility.
⸻
THE PREMIUM PORTFOLIOS
USC
Texas
Ohio State
Multiple five-stars plus extensive Top-100 depth.
These may be the most expensive classes from top to bottom, but they’re also less dependent on any single player.
⸻
THE NATIONAL RAIDERS
Alabama
USC
Texas A&M
These programs aren’t simply recruiting where geography gives them an advantage.
They’re repeatedly entering other programs’ talent hubs and winning.
Those battles tend to get expensive.
⸻
THE VOLUME BUILDERS
Florida
Clemson
Illinois
UCLA
TCU
Less dependence on five-stars.
More four-star accumulation.
Potentially a more efficient use of NIL if those evaluations are correct.
⸻
THE REGIONAL ASSASSINS
Oklahoma → Texas
Tennessee → Georgia
Clemson → Georgia/Florida
BYU → California
These programs have identified specific outside markets and are trying to turn them into extensions of home territory.
⸻
✈️ NOW COMES THE PART THAT CAN BREAK THE MODEL
The projection assumes today’s leader eventually wins.
We know that isn’t going to happen everywhere.
Heavy visit season is beginning.
And visits can change everything.
A great visit can:
Strengthen a current lead.
Push a player toward committing.
Make a recruit comfortable enough to stop shopping.
Give a school the confidence to redirect NIL and recruiting resources elsewhere.
A poor visit can do the exact opposite.
And because these rankings are weighted, not all flips are equal.
If Texas flips one of Alabama’s five-star safeties?
Texas gains massive value.
Alabama loses massive value.
If LSU flips Mike Downs from Texas A&M?
LSU rises.
A&M falls.
If Georgia reclaims one of its home-state five-stars?
Georgia gains the elite piece it’s missing while Notre Dame, Clemson, Alabama or A&M loses one.
If Miami flips Nick Cota?
Miami suddenly gets the headline recruit its class desperately needs while A&M loses one of the six pillars holding up the most top-heavy class in USDA.
If Oregon starts winning some of the California fights where it’s currently hanging around?
USC, Washington and others could feel it.
These aren’t isolated decisions anymore.
They’re ranking swings.
⸻
🚨 THE TOP-FIVE PRESSURE LINE
Today:
1. USC
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Texas A&M
5. Ohio State
Then:
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Penn State
9. LSU
10. Florida
That’s the race to watch.
USC currently has the best overall blend.
Texas has perhaps the cleanest premium board.
Alabama has massive volume and may be the best pure raider.
A&M owns the highest five-star ceiling.
Ohio State currently has the last seat at the Elite Recruiter table.
Notre Dame is standing directly behind the chair.
Penn State has enough elite talent to kick the door down.
Clemson may have the most stable quietly excellent class in the country.
And LSU and Florida are close enough that one elite weekend could reshape the conversation.
Nobody is being crowned in Week 4.
But the money is being allocated.
The territories are being defined.
The expensive recruitments are starting to separate from the normal ones.
And now the visits begin.
The first month built the board.
The next month may decide who can actually close it.